Thursday, June 28, 2012

Economists are over-confident

This is an interesting story about economists' use of statistics, arguing that we are generally overconfident about our results, in particular about forecasts.  It is good to see some empirical evidence about this.  The authors found that readers tend to focus on the point estimate and not give enough attention to the standard error and confidence interval.  Interestingly, when the results were supplemented with graphs there was no improvement in understanding of the numbers and their implications.  However, when only graphs were shown, then the interpretations were better.

Take a look at the original paper (follow the link to the earlier version, which is freely available) to learn more.

This is food for thought when considering how you might present statistical results.