Thursday, September 17, 2015

An estimate based on... zero evidence?

News agencies today report that "RAF strikes since 2014 have killed around 330 IS fighters".  The UK defence secretary said the figure was "highly approximate" since there were no UK ground troops there to confirm casualties.

He also said ministers did not believe the action had caused civilian casualties.

It looks like both these claims are highly speculative and based on very little information.  No source is given for the claim about civilian casualties.  To be fair to the minister, he was answering a Parliamentary question so had to say something, but what he did say should probably be heavily discounted.

Stories such as this (not just about warfare) appear all the time in the press.  It is always useful to ask yourself 'what is the evidence for this?'.  If little or none is given then one should not take the claims too seriously (even if the issue itself is serious).

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